Deterrence in a Legal Fog: How IHL Enforcement and Securitization Shape Escalation in Asymmetric Conflicts

De Waal and Khan (2025) argue that IHL enforcement struggles in Israel–Gaza, where legal norms collide with asymmetric warfare. Deterrence theory suggests perceived intent is central to threat assessment (Tu et al., 2024), and high-stakes environments often intensify escalation risks (Danilović, 2010). This project asks: do IHL allegations and enforcement actions dampen violence by increasing restraint, or do they escalate conflict by reinforcing hostile intent narratives and hardening domestic resolve? We combine text-as-data analyses of securitizing speech (leaders, media), codings of IHL allegation events, and conflict intensity series, using time-series cross-sectional designs to estimate short- and medium-run effects. We also incorporate qualitative case studies of specific allegation–response sequences in Israel–Gaza and Russia–Ukraine (including nuclear threat rhetoric; Djumala et al., 2023). The novelty is to treat the legal-information environment as a signaling channel within deterrence, rather than an external constraint—an underexplored linkage in the literature. Findings could clarify when legal pressure reduces harm and when it inadvertently signals “harmful intent,” raising the risk of escalation. The policy implications are immediate: craft legal and public diplomacy strategies that support deterrence stability instead of amplifying securitization feedback loops.

References:

1. Untangling threat perception in international relations: an empirical analysis of threats posed by China and their implications for security discourse. Chang-Ching Tu, Han-Ping Tien, Ji-Jen Hwang (2024). Cogent Arts & Humanities.
2. Assessing the Challenges of Enforcing International Humanitarian Law in the ongoing- Israel-Gaza Conflict and its Impact in International Relations. Shaylee Daniella DE WAAL, Raja Danish Akbar Khan (2025). Cognizance Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies.
3. When the Stakes Are High: Deterrence and Conflict among Major Powers. V. Danilovic (2010).
4. CONSTRUING THE NUCLEAR THREAT: The Relevance of Deterrence Theory in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Darmansjah Djumala, Arry Bainus, R. Widya Setiabudi Sumadinata, Yusa Djuyandi (2023). Journal of Namibian Studies: History Politics Culture.