Benchmarking Human Prediction of Jagged AI Capabilities

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We all know that AI capabilities are jagged, but how can we measure that? Moreover, can we measure how well humans predict this jagged capabilities?

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If you are inspired by this idea, you can reach out to the authors for collaboration or cite it:

@misc{tan-benchmarking-human-prediction-2025,
  author = {Tan, Chenhao},
  title = {Benchmarking Human Prediction of Jagged AI Capabilities},
  year = {2025},
  url = {https://hypogenic.ai/ideahub/idea/dduQDJ2SYck7wgfuCSli}
}

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