Cross-Border Relational Capacity: How State Capacity Spillovers Shape Regional Conflict

Müller-Crepon et al. (2020) revolutionized how we think about state capacity by focusing on relational dynamics within states. But what happens across borders? This study would examine "cross-border relational state capacity" - how state capacity in one country affects conflict risk in neighboring states through transnational connections. For example, does strong state capacity in Country A reduce conflict risk in Country B by limiting rebel sanctuaries? Or does it increase risk by pushing rebels across borders? The research could use spatial modeling to examine how changes in state capacity (like the post-conflict capacity building Kreiman studies in Peru) affect conflict dynamics in neighboring countries, accounting for ethnic kin networks, refugee flows, and cross-border institutions. This would extend relational state capacity theory beyond the nation-state, helping explain why conflicts cluster regionally and how state capacity has externalities that shape regional security dynamics.

References:

1. The incursion of Leviathan: wartime territorial control and post-conflict state capacity in Peru. Guillermo Kreiman (2022). WIDER Working Paper.
2. Roads to Rule, Roads to Rebel: Relational State Capacity and Conflict in Africa. Carl Müller-Crepon, P. Hunziker, L. Cederman (2020). Journal of Conflict Resolution.