A rapid-response survey infrastructure to “harvest” natural experiments

Operationalize ad hoc event-timing designs into a general infrastructure by pre-specifying event triggers, sampling windows, and staggered adoption designs; adding high-resolution timing, geolocation, and media exposure measures; and incorporating synthetic controls for regions not hit by the shock. This creates a reusable, multi-country “living lab” for natural experiments that routinely captures exogenous variation from unexpected events. The approach builds on event-timing designs, synthetic control methods, pre-registered falsification maps, and mechanism modules like media salience and perceived threat. It increases power and external validity by pooling events across space and time under a harmonized protocol while retaining design-based identification. The potential impact is sharper, faster causal evidence on attitudes, mental health, misinformation exposure, and institutional trust following shocks, informing crisis communication and social cohesion interventions.

References:

1. A blueprint for synthetic control methodology: a causal inference tool for evaluating natural experiments in population health. Ben Barr, Xingna Zhang, M. Green, I. Buchan (2022). British medical journal.
2. A blueprint for synthetic control methodology: a causal inference tool for evaluating natural experiments in population health. Ben Barr, Xingna Zhang, M. Green, I. Buchan (2022). British medical journal.
3. A blueprint for synthetic control methodology: a causal inference tool for evaluating natural experiments in population health. Ben Barr, Xingna Zhang, M. Green, I. Buchan (2022). British medical journal.