Shock Cascades in Remittance-Trade Networks: Modeling Embargo Spillovers

Al-Malk et al. show embargoes slash remittances but overlook trade linkages. This research models remittance-dependent households as nodes in a global network, simulating how shocks (e.g., Qatar embargo) cascade to trade partners via consumption/import changes. Using temporal network models (Wang et al., 2023), we could identify "remittance-trade corridors" vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. This bridges migration economics and trade resilience—unlike Ó Laoghaire (2020), who focuses on goods, not financial flows. The innovation is treating remittances as "liquidity veins" in trade networks, offering a framework to preempt crisis spillovers in interdependent economies.

References:

1. Taking Interdependence Seriously: Trade, Essential Supplies, and the International Division of Labour in COVID-19. Tadhg Ó Laoghaire (2020).
2. International migration, remittances, and remaining households: evidence from a trade embargo. A. Al-Malk, Jean-François Maystadt, Maria Navarro Paniagua (2024). Journal of Demographic Economics.
3. Dynamic change of international arms trade network structure and its influence mechanism. Xinyi Wang, Bo Chen, Yu Song (2023). International Journal of Emerging Markets.